The first week of the month, congressional Democrats, on their summer recess — or “district work period,” as some call it — were on the defensive; the “Astroturf” anti-health-care-overhaul demonstrators took over constituent sessions, forcing Democratic members to cancel town hall meetings. Republican derision of the Obama stimulus plan dominated the political debate.
By last week, the dynamic had shifted some. Democrats and health care proponents didn’t have the edge as angry demonstrations against the health care plan continued, but a counteroffensive was gaining ground. On the economy, and to an extent on health care, the president and Democrats were giving as well as getting.
Representative Joe Donnelly, a second-term Democrat who represents an industrial slice of Indiana, says the passion in his district is palpable. Last weekend, 300 constituents turned up in the delicatessen section of a supermarket to discuss health care. On Aug. 12, he expected 70 people in Kokomo; 500 showed up, and the event had to be moved to the street.
Though the gatherings were intense, Mr. Donnelly says that these residents largely were “respectful” and that there was “more of a balance” on health care the past week: senior citizens worried about Medicare cuts, parents worried about coverage for children with pre-existing conditions and people who after many travails — unemployment ranges close to 20 percent in some of his counties — are “overwhelmed” at the notion of tackling health care, too.
There are two likely causes for the more balanced perspective, which was also observed by other lawmakers.
One, the administration caught a big break on the economy. The July unemployment number was better than anticipated. The last two Federal Reserve chairmen — Ben S. Bernanke and Alan Greenspan — along with Nouriel Roubini, the prescient prophet of gloom the past several years, and Goldman Sachs Group all saw an economy on the mend.
And the oft-ridiculed fiscal stimulus package is starting to look like a winner. Mayors and local officials around the United States now say the federal funds are demonstrably creating or at least saving jobs.
Some of the Republican governors who initially talked of rejecting stimulus money are either out of office (Sarah Palin of Alaska), discredited (Mark Sanford of South Carolina) or spending it freely while claiming credit for its effects in their states (Rick Perry of Texas and Bobby Jindal of Louisiana).
With only 15 percent of the cash spent, the stimulus has already saved more than 500,000 jobs, according to separate estimates by Moody’s Economy.com and HIS Global Insight. “There are clear signs the stimulus is working,” said Kenneth Goldstein, an economist at the nonpartisan Conference Board in New York.
The fate of health care is inextricably linked to the economy. It is a test of the administration’s competence: if they can’t get a stimulus right, how do you expect them to overhaul 17 percent of the nation’s economy? It also forms the perception of the financial climate for any other measures.
The other factor that has neutralized the bleak situation that faced Democrats is the overreach of critics. Some of the opposition may be ginned up by conservative groups, but Obama Democrats — accused of orchestrating the huge crowds for their candidate during the campaign — invite ridicule when they suggest the protesters at the health care gatherings are all puppets.
The opposition, however, has gone over the top. At a town hall meeting with Democratic Representative John D. Dingell in Romulus, Michigan, a woman with disabilities was shouted down by health care overhaul opponents; some lawmakers have been threatened physically, and a swastika was painted on the office of a Democratic congressman in Georgia.
Demagogic misrepresentations that the health care proposals mandate euthanasia or are a magnet to attract illegal immigrants abound. It’s not just from fringe groups. Ms. Palin, the 2008 Republican vice-presidential candidate, railed that “my baby with Down syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel”’ if the Democrats’ initiative were enacted. That canard is offensive to families who have loved ones with disabilities.
Then Investors Business Daily, in criticizing the Obama health care plan, charged that if the famed scientist Stephen Hawking lived in Britain, its National Health Service wouldn’t save his life, which “because of his physical handicaps is essentially worthless.” Mr. Hawking, 67, who has a motor neuron disease that is like Lou Gehrig’s disease, is a British subject and has received lifelong care from that nation’s health system; he was one of 16 recipients of the Medal of Freedom from Mr. Obama this week.
The White House, working with Democratic supporters, plans to stay on the offensive for the next week, with more town halls and by directly taking on the critics. Mr. Obama plans weekly phone-ins for Democratic senators and House members to discuss strategy.
Enacting a health care overhaul still is a very tough slog. Opponents have an easy, if sometimes false, target; Democrats haven’t coalesced behind a consensus proposal yet, which creates awkward dialogues and allows peripheral issues to dominate.
And while the economy is improving, new budget deficit numbers out later this month aren’t likely to be confidence-inducing. “We couldn’t pass a bill that adds to the deficit,” Mr. Donnelly said.
Although the Obama economic plan may be succeeding, there remain painful dislocations and 15 million jobless Americans.
That makes the president’s decision to vacation in Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts, later this month puzzling. Certainly, the Obamas need and deserve a family vacation. But with the worst economic situation since the Great Depression and joblessness close to 10 percent, paying more than $25,000 in weekly rent to hobnob with the elite seems off key. Isn’t there something nice, a lot cheaper, on Lake Michigan?
However well deserved, Mr. Obama will have returned from that vacation when the battle is fully joined in September. And while he has been slow to react, history is encouraging to health care overhaul supporters. He initially was slow off the mark in the presidential primaries, the general election and some of the early moments of his presidency. When he gets going, though, usually he’s more than a match for the opposition.
